Replication crisis

Do you know what is the number one issue of many research especially the ones where you are trying to demonstrate or create a new finding?

Funding is actually the second issue!

The major issue is what the scientific community calls the Replication crisis!

The wonder of AI or most machines is that once you train or do the first task, it will do that task again and again without error!

That is one of the chief difference between humans and AI!

The same task may be done differently by even the same human or groups of humans! Even if the first finding of your study is robust, many times when you re analyze or conduct the test again; the findings are not replicated!
One of the best examples of this crisis is a very famous study called the marshmallow experiment!

The study has been quoted in many books especially books on self help and financial education.

The experiment shows something called the delayed gratification.

Also called the Stanford marshmallow experiment, it was a study done in 1970 led by psychologist Walter Mischel, a professor at Stanford University.

In this study, a child was offered a choice between one small but immediate reward, or two small rewards if they waited for a period of time. During this time, the researcher left the child in a room with a single marshmallow for about 15 minutes and then returned. If they did not eat the marshmallow, the reward was either another marshmallow or pretzel stick, depending on the child’s preference.

In follow-up studies, the researchers found that children who were able to wait longer for the preferred rewards tended to have better life outcomes, as measured by SAT scores, educational attainment, body mass index (BMI) and other life measures.

So far so good!

But here comes the replication crisis!

A replication attempt with a sample from a more diverse population, over 10 times larger than the original study, showed only half the effect of the original study!

The replication suggested that economic background, rather than willpower, explained the other half!

Finally the predictive power of the marshmallow test was challenged in a 2020 study and subsequent work done in 2018 and 2024 found that the Marshmallow Test “does not reliably predict adult functioning”

This replication crisis in shows a widespread failure to reproduce the results of published  studies, leading to concerns about the reliability and validity of psychological and other research.

Initiated in the early 2010s, this crisis highlighted that many findings, especially from the social sciences, could not be reliably confirmed by subsequent studies.
Now this is only one study; many studies have been found to have the replication crisis which challenge the accuracy of published findings!

While most visible in psychology, the issue affects other social and natural sciences as well. Even in many modern experiments this can happen!

Basically if at first you succeed; it is not necessary that you will do so again!
Sounds evil! Just sounds though! Like Prem Chopra!

Now replicate what you do everyday when you go to bed in the night!
I just meant sleep!

SHubh Ratri!

The Secret of Secrets by Dan Brown

The Secret of Secrets by Dan Brown

Sixth installment in his Robert Langdon series!

E book! No spoilers!

Will be giving so many details without revealing the crux of the book!

Mystery thriller with lots of facts and figures (more accurately symbols!) thrown around for good measure!

The scene of crime so to speak is the city of Prague!

Robert Langdon and his friend are in the city for a talk and a book would be releasing soon!

Everything is going fine till the next morning when nightmares come true! The bodies start piling up and the history of Prague gets in between a race to survive and live to tell the tale!

You will learn about so many new facts or old facts but new findings!

You will get introduced to a new science called the NOETIC science!

Robert is an expert in symbols and you will get to know about two famous symbols which have been misrepresented and are actually incorrect!

Then you will learn about ESP!

You will also learn about Reticular theory and a great issue amongst scientists called the Replication crisis!

You will also get to know about the most common religious symbol in the world!

In between Robert will take you on a historical tour of Prague while trying to stay alive!

A couple of monsters’ here and there (yes that is not a typo!) and an amazing reveal in the end!

Then you have some old theories like Moor’s law coming up without any warning and some experimentation with brain!

Add the fact that the most powerful organization in the world is after you or your work, rest assured you will be pleased!

Then you have the most powerful chemical in the brain which is the secret of secrets!

You will get to know about REUBEN NSEMOH or DEREK AMATO! Of course they are not in the story but their story is mentioned! To show the power of the Brain!

The age old question of death and what happens after is given a new twist!

If you like his older works; I would say the last one was a little disappointing but this one more than makes it up!

One thing which struck me is that, I could picture not Tom Hanks but Tom Cruise as Robert! Both will do though!

Final warning! Do not start if you do not have time! Because once you do, you may want to finish it as soon as possible!

None of the above would give you the storyline though!

Or you can ask me and I will personally send you the spoilers!

I read your mind! Just kidding! Or am I?

It is a secret of secrets!

Sanu da suno da!


Among other controversial things, the novel Secrets of Secrets by Dan Brown tells about ESP!

More specifically the ganzfeld experiment! Now do not worry! The experiment is simply mentioned in the novel! It is not a part of the storyline! So read without any fear of spoilers!

When you have a German name for an experiment then rest assured it will be noticed!

Ganzfeld is from the German words for “entire” and “field”!

Now do not get scared by the name! No animals or humans were harmed! At least that was the official statement!

Before that you must know what is ESP! For ENT surgeons it is actually an Elongated Styloid Process!
But for the scientific community  it is extrasensory perception which is just another scientific (or more accurately pseudo scientific!) name for Telepathy!

So the ganzfeld experiment is a parapsychological test for extrasensory perception that involves creating a state of sensory deprivation for a receiver by blocking their vision with halved ping-pong balls and a red light, and their hearing with white noise through headphones. The goal is for the receiver to perceive a mental image or information being sent by a remote “sender”. The sensory deprivation is also intended to induce hallucinations by making the brain create its own stimuli in the absence of external input!

In this you must understand that the brain is not only the receiver but also the sender of information!

The experiment thus aims to create a simulation of Internal Creation!

The lack of external visual and auditory input causes the brain to become more active in generating its own perceptions, which can lead to hallucinations or other unusual experiences.

In a parapsychological context, while the receiver is in this state, a remote “sender” tries to focus on and transmit a specific image or thought to the receiver!

The receiver reports any images, thoughts, or feelings they experience, such as seeing abstract shapes, fractal-like images, or experiencing a sense of another presence.

Parapsychologists use ganzfeld experiments to try and detect evidence of telepathy or other forms of ESP. The procedure is also a method for inducing a state that can lead to hallucinations, with the brain filling in sensory gaps and creating its own mental stimuli.

Now all this is fine but (long time no BUT!); even though early or initial tests were able to give some support to the ESP phenomenon the later tests and flaws have always been the bane of the ganzfeld experiment.

In short; if you believe in ESP,  you may also be inclined to accept the findings of the experiment while if you are a true skeptic; you would point out the flaws and bias!

Still ESP or not; ganzfeld is a fun term to say and write a blog about! See I knew by telepathy or ESP that you smiled! If not then then may be now! Yes!
See! I can read your mind! If not then maybe its the lack of brain and not ESP!

Now I can feel that you are feeling sleepy after reading this blog!

Ramfield experiment maybe working!

Then again if you are not feeling sleepy then listen to some old Sanu da song!

SHubh Ratri!

Demarcation…


In one novel which read long ago by Ken Follet; he describes by a character on how to tackle being kidnapped!

If you are imprisoned in a lonely place like a jungle with no place to go; apparently the first things to do is to demarcated the place where you would answer the nature’s call! It must be as away as possible from where you are planning to stay for prolonged periods and definitely far from where you sleep!

Similarly in a recent book called atomic habits by James Clear he states how you must have demarcated zones for your habits!

The core idea of the book is that making small, consistent shifts—what he calls “atomic habits”—can lead to a significant transformation over time, because habits are the “compound interest of self-improvement”!

He also demonstrated this principle with the “1% rule,” mentioning how minor, consistent improvements build up to an impressive outcome over time!

Getting 1% better every day for one year doesn’t just make you 365% better; it makes you nearly 37 times better!

Clear provides a framework called the Four Laws of Behavior Change, which makes it simple to implement small habits in your life.
The first law is to make it obvious which uses environmental cues to remind you of the habit. For example, lay out your running clothes the night before to make morning exercise an obvious choice!

Make it as attractive as possible by pairing the habit you want to build with a habit you already enjoy. If you want to meditate, do it while listening to your favorite music! I sketch while listening to music or an audiobook!

Small steps are important to make it easy! For example, start with a 10-minute walk instead of trying to commit to an hour-long run which is in fact your final goal!

Finally you must make it satisfying by reinforcing the habit with a small, immediate reward! Just looking at your smart watch for goal achieved is great!

Finally we come to the topic we started!
Demarcation!

You can’t eat in the bedroom and you must never sleep in the living room!
You must have a room or corner where you consistently pray or read and only one place which you must use to sleep! You literally must not sleep around!

When this becomes ingrained then unless you decide to sleep and go to the bedroom, you will not sleep! When you thus device a system then your efficiency also improves!

Efficiency is also when PBS sings RK songs!

Shubh ratri!

Fractals! Or factuals!

You know me and you know mini me!

Do you know fractals?

Do you know what is the similarity between Lightning bolts and a broccoli?

Or even you lungs!?

Well they are all fractals!

Fractals are infinitely complex mathematical shapes or patterns characterized by self-similarity, meaning they look similar at different scales of magnification!
They are created through the repeated iteration of a simple process, leading to a never-ending pattern! They finally become so complex that they cannot be fully described by traditional Euclidean geometry!

Fractals are found in nature, such as in trees, rivers, and coastlines, and are used in various fields like computer graphics and art

The issue with fractals is that although they start simple they become infinitely complex because the repeating process can continue indefinitely!

Unlike traditional shapes (like a line having a dimension of 1 or a plane having 2), fractals have a dimension that is often a fraction, reflecting their intricate and fragmented nature!

So we have some natural fractals in nature like the Lightning bolts, Coastlines
Ferns and broccoli!

Even the circulatory and respiratory systems (lungs) are fractals! Then you have the favorite sketches of any kid! A house wit a river in the center and you have the rising sun with the mountain! The Mountain ranges are fractals!

Then you have a complex fractal called the The Koch snowflake!
This is a fractal curve that starts with an equilateral triangle and repeatedly adds an equilateral triangle to the middle third of each existing side, creating a self-similar pattern that resembles a snowflake. It has an infinite perimeter but a finite area, a key property of this famous mathematical shape described by Swedish mathematician Helge von Koch in 1904!

The most defining feature is the repeating nature of the pattern at various scales. Zooming in on a fractal reveals smaller versions of the same overall shape.

Then again if you see mothers everywhere; by and large you would see the different versions of the same thing!

Now that is a fact nor fractal!

Then again I know for a fact that I had the best mother ever!

Five years since you have left me amma and still the pain is the same…

Lucky are those who can say Good night mom!

Shubh ratri…

Symbols assemble!

One of the most misused symbols is the one used by medical associations all over the world!

In fact some of the most famous medical associations in the world actually use the symbol by mistake!

The symbol what they use is actually meant for trade and commerce while they were supposed to used the symbol for health! It is so frequently used (or misused!) that no one even minds it!

Accuracy though takes a beating!

The problems of not knowing history!

The symbol in question is called the caduceus!

The incorrect use of the Caduceus as a symbol of medicine, when the actual symbol is the Rod of Asclepius!

The Caduceus is the staff of Hermes, the Greek messenger god associated with commerce and trade, and was mistakenly adopted by the U.S. Army Medical Corps in the early 1900s!

The Caduceus is a staff with a staff, two snakes, and usually wings on top which is actually the staff of Hermes, the messenger of the gods! The actual representation is that it represents commerce, negotiation, and trade!

It was erroneously adopted as a medical symbol in the late 19th and early 20th centuries due to a misunderstanding by the US ARMY (no comments there!)

The actual symbol should have been the Rod of Asclepius which is a staff with a single snake entwined around it! This actually represents the staff of Asclepius, the Greek god of healing and medicine! And represents healing, medicine, and healthcare! One theory is that  it represents the Guinea worm parasite. To remove it, healers would wrap the slowly emerging worm around a stick, creating a visual similar to the Rod! By the way, even now one of the best treatment of a guinea worm protruding out of a lesion is to wrap it slowly on a stick and take it out! The snake represents a worm! Maybe that is why it was not good enough! Let us do away with one worm like snake and take two snakes! And give them wings!

What is represents for a medical professional can always be handled later! They would be too busy to notice!

All because a U.S. Army officer mistook the Caduceus for the Rod of Asclepius around 1902!

Unfortunately everyone follows the one with money and power while history and truth normally takes a beating!

Then again a medical professional can still be a “messenger” of good or bad news and justify the Caduceus! Justifying also is the title of Dynamic Hero for Devaraj!

Now look at other wrong symbols but do not lose your sleep over it!

SHubh Ratri!

Moore and Laika…

Did you ever imagine that you can talk face to face to someone who is thousands of kilometers away from you!

When someone told just 25 years back that your mobile can do most of the work and replace at least a dozen devices like mp3 player to clock to calculator you would have laughed! Now it’s common knowledge!

That according to Robert Langdon in secret of secrets is Moore’s law!

Moore’s Law is the observation, made by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore, that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years, leading to increased power and reduced cost in electronics. Initially a forecast for the next decade in a 1965 article, it was revised to a two-year doubling period in 1975 and has since become a guiding principle and benchmark for the semiconductor industry’s technological innovation. 

1975: Moore revised this forecast to a doubling period of every two years.

The consistent pursuit of this trend by companies like Intel turned the prediction into a target that drives research and development in the industry!


All though it was for transistors; now it applies to most all inventions! Technology moves at such astronomical pace that it’s mind boggling!

The science fiction of today is the normal of tomorrow!

Then again some technology and studies unfortunately involves sacrifices. One such legendary story is of poor Laika…

Laika was the stray Moscow mongrel who became the first animal to orbit the Earth when she was launched into space aboard the Soviet Sputnik 2 spacecraft on November 3, 1957.

She died from stress and overheating a few hours into the flight, though the exact details of her death were not revealed to the public until 2002. Her mission provided crucial data for human spaceflight, and she is widely remembered as a pioneer of space exploration.

With all the advances do spare a thought for such great sacrifices…

A quick sketch on a very busy day…
Shubh ratri…

Alderian you say!

The courage to be disliked by Ichiro Kishimi and Fumitake Koga is an interesting book which discusses a theory which has become very popular in the world!

This theory focuses on the importance of social interactions and community involvement in order to promote individual growth.

This approach emphasized each individual’s need for connection, belonging, and striving to overcome feelings of inferiority.

Adlerian psychology is thus a type of  psychotherapy approach based on this approach. And named after Alfred Adler!

Alfred Adler is often considered one of the big three founders of psychotherapy alongside Sigmund Freud and Carl Jung.

Alderian concept does not put blame on your parents or your family! In short it does not give you a punching bag! It makes you take the blame and work on it!

Now imagine you are at a restaurant and a waiter drops the coffee on you!
If you shout at the waiter then apparently Alderian psychology says that you had already decided to shout at the waiter! You had already decided he is inferior and he is a good bag to punch! Because if the coffee was dropped by say your Boss then you would have kept your trap shut!

The opposite is also true! You would only argue with those who are not useful to you or for now inferior to you! Then the argument is simply to prove you are right!

Adlerian Concepts in Action are now seen in many situations!

A student who consistently underperforms in academics might feel inferior, leading them to overcompensate by acting cocky and arrogant to prove they are superior to their peers. This has nothing to do with his or her parents or upbringing! He or she must work on himself or herself!

Like an adolescent who struggles with social anxiety might be encouraged to join a volunteer group to build their social interest, feel more connected to others, and develop a sense of purpose in the community!

So practically instead of focusing on a single symptom, an Adlerian therapist would look at a person’s entire life pattern, including their beliefs, lifestyle, and goals, to understand their struggles. For example, understanding why someone is constantly late might involve looking at their overall life goals rather than just the act of being tardy!

A one line summary would be, all your actions are solely because of you! You cannot blame the whole world for your problems! Start improving yourself and automatically the world would follow! One such person who did that is the legendary Sampath Kumar! His movies were a must watch from the first one! Even now you can remember his amazing smile and screen presence! You may know him as Dr. Vishnuvardhan!

Now if you get late to bed then you have only to blame yourself according to Adlerian psychology so better sleep on time!

Shubh ratri!

Reticular theory…

Do you know what is Reticular theory? We will come to that!

The secrets of secrets revealed another important fact which is well known! We will come to that also!

The whole human species and the book is finally a homage to the most powerful weapon of them all!

In a series made by Warner brothers called Batman the animated series each and every episode is a classic! Young gen may laugh at the animation or the effects but even they would be amazed at the deft direction and story telling!

Even now those 20 minute episodes can make you sit up and be amazed!

In one such episode the caped crusader is made to answer a question the answer to which will determine his life!

The question-“I have millions of eyes, yet I live in darkness. I have millions of ears, yet only four lobes. I have no muscles, yet I rule two hemispheres. What am I?”

Batman in his regular style would tell the answer to the Riddler! The only thing even you; Enigma would bow down to everyday and respect!

The answer : That’s simple: the HUMAN BRAIN!!

It has millions of visual and auditory nerves, four lobes and two hemispheres!

It has been postulated that the brain often works as a single unit and this is called the reticular theory!

Reticular theory is an neuroscientific concept proposed by Joseph von Gerlach and supported by Camillo Golgi, which posited that the nervous system is a continuous, fused network of nerve cells, functioning as a single syncytium rather than as discrete, independent units.

This theory was ultimately disproven by Santiago Ramón y Cajal, who demonstrated that nerve cells are distinct entities communicating through synapses, a finding that led to the neuron doctrine.

Then again like in the novel it has often been mentioned that you are a single unit! Like how it is mentioned that you have ‘muscle’ memory! Which according to Dan is oxymoron! Since muscle does not have ‘memory’! The memory is in the brain which activates those points and then you can ride a bicycle even after ages! It is all in the BRAIN!

Then again your brain and your body is a single unit! And in that line so is your country! On that note, take a moment to wish your Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi ji a very happy birthday!

Jai Hind!

Real or AI real?

Have you heard of the story of the Cottingley Fairies?

Search it when you can till the time Google gives you normal non fake results!

Now this is an interesting story!

The Cottingley Fairies are the subjects of a story which was supposed to provide evidence of the existence of fairies!

They appear in a series of five photographs taken by Elsie Wright and Frances Griffiths, two young cousins who lived in Cottingley, near Bradford in England. In 1917, when the first two photographs were taken, Elsie was 16 years old and Frances was 9.

The photos and the expressions were so real and genuine and it was the early days of photography! So much so that even the author of the super intelligent Sherlock Holmes was taken in!

The pictures came to the attention of Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, who used them to illustrate an article on fairies he had been commissioned to write for the Christmas 1920 edition of The Strand Magazine. Doyle was enthusiastic about the photographs, and interpreted them as clear and visible evidence of supernatural phenomena!

Of course like every other thing many believed it to be genuine and many fake!

Finally in the early 1980s Elsie and Frances admitted that the photographs were faked, using cardboard cutouts of fairies copied from a popular children’s book of the time, but Frances maintained that the fifth and final photograph was genuine!

The other day an influencer had posted her ‘photo’ in a different attire somewhere different than her usual place! Later she confessed that only the face was her own! The Google Gemini flash had simply pasted her face perfectly on to another person (or even created that who knows!) and generated an image which looked so real!

You also have AI generated videos which needs only your voice matching to even create videos of anyone and everyone with amazing clarity and precision that you would be shocked!

The Cottingley Fairies story happened in the 1920s while the AI fake image generation is happening in the 2020s! As far as technology is concerned, we have now come a full circle! With a few words and some skill you can have an image generated, a tune created and even a song generated! With a little more skill you can even make an AI generated movie starring even yourself! No one can tell which is real and which is AI!

The only thing which is genuine is what you see and touch with your own eyes without any screen in between!

You may even feel that this blog and the sketch is AI generated! Then you see the flaws and the imperfections! Then you know it is Human!

If it is perfect then just know that it is not real! Real perfection of the musical kind was the duo of Raamlaxman! One of them was Vijay Patil! Both made real non AI music!

Now stop your virtual sleep and sleep for real!

SHubh ratri!