Dunning Kruger


The Psychology of Stupidity by Jean-François Marmion is actually a translated book from French! Of course it is about stupidity!

One of bias discussed in the book is called the Dunning-Kruger effect.

The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias where people with low ability in a specific skill tend to overestimate their own competence, while high performers often underestimate theirs!

In simple terms; stupid people are very confident while intelligent ones are usually doubtful!

The reason is that individuals lacking expertise are also unable to recognize their own mistakes, and while those with high competence and intelligence may assume tasks are easy for everyone, leading to them underestimating their abilities!


Understanding this effect helps individuals and organizations by encouraging more accurate self-assessment and a greater appreciation for expertise!

People with limited knowledge in a subject tend to believe they are much better at it than they actually are! They lack the meta-cognitive ability to recognize their own incompetence, making it difficult to gauge their poor performance.


While highly competent individuals may underestimate their abilities because they assume tasks that are easy for them are also easy for others. This can lead them to think they are average when they are, in fact, highly skilled!

Examples of the Dunning-Kruger effect:
A person who has just learned a few phrases of a new language might think they are fluent, without recognizing the vast amount of knowledge they still lack. In fact when you learn all the alphabets in a single book you may think that since these are the letters which can make any word; you know everything! While in fact what you know as Baba says; is just a drop in the ocean of knowledge!

In politics, leaders with limited expertise may be overconfident in their own ability to solve complex problems and may dismiss expert advice!

Dunning-Kruger effect is just an observation but still gets to a point where it is dangerous like when a fool or a stupid is given a very important task! The proverbial button or the switch to the bomb!

You must realize that knowledge is a continuous process! The more you gain, the more you realize that you know so less!

In any case the steps to acquire knowledge even otherwise goes through some stages…

Unconscious incompetence: Not knowing what you don’t know! Basically you are an idiot or stupid but you do not know that you are an idiot!

Conscious incompetence: Becoming aware of your lack of knowledge! Which means that you are stupid but you have now understood that you are stupid!

Conscious competence: Gaining knowledge and becoming competent! You are no longer stupid but still can make mistakes! You are still a student!

Unconscious competence: Reaching a level where the skill is mastered! You are the master!

Mitigating the effect: Becoming aware of the Dunning-Kruger effect is the first step to overcoming it!

Then again you cannot teach those who cannot be taught!

Luckily there are those super intelligent nuclear scientists like Dr Raja Ramana!

Shubh ratri…

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