Do you know what is the number one issue of many research especially the ones where you are trying to demonstrate or create a new finding?
Funding is actually the second issue!
The major issue is what the scientific community calls the Replication crisis!
The wonder of AI or most machines is that once you train or do the first task, it will do that task again and again without error!
That is one of the chief difference between humans and AI!
The same task may be done differently by even the same human or groups of humans! Even if the first finding of your study is robust, many times when you re analyze or conduct the test again; the findings are not replicated!
One of the best examples of this crisis is a very famous study called the marshmallow experiment!
The study has been quoted in many books especially books on self help and financial education.
The experiment shows something called the delayed gratification.
Also called the Stanford marshmallow experiment, it was a study done in 1970 led by psychologist Walter Mischel, a professor at Stanford University.
In this study, a child was offered a choice between one small but immediate reward, or two small rewards if they waited for a period of time. During this time, the researcher left the child in a room with a single marshmallow for about 15 minutes and then returned. If they did not eat the marshmallow, the reward was either another marshmallow or pretzel stick, depending on the child’s preference.
In follow-up studies, the researchers found that children who were able to wait longer for the preferred rewards tended to have better life outcomes, as measured by SAT scores, educational attainment, body mass index (BMI) and other life measures.
So far so good!
But here comes the replication crisis!
A replication attempt with a sample from a more diverse population, over 10 times larger than the original study, showed only half the effect of the original study!
The replication suggested that economic background, rather than willpower, explained the other half!
Finally the predictive power of the marshmallow test was challenged in a 2020 study and subsequent work done in 2018 and 2024 found that the Marshmallow Test “does not reliably predict adult functioning”
This replication crisis in shows a widespread failure to reproduce the results of published studies, leading to concerns about the reliability and validity of psychological and other research.
Initiated in the early 2010s, this crisis highlighted that many findings, especially from the social sciences, could not be reliably confirmed by subsequent studies.
Now this is only one study; many studies have been found to have the replication crisis which challenge the accuracy of published findings!
While most visible in psychology, the issue affects other social and natural sciences as well. Even in many modern experiments this can happen!
Basically if at first you succeed; it is not necessary that you will do so again!
Sounds evil! Just sounds though! Like Prem Chopra!
Now replicate what you do everyday when you go to bed in the night!
I just meant sleep!
SHubh Ratri!
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