“Same as ever” by Morgan Housel the author of Psychology of money
Audio book
Running length around 5-6 hours
Narrated by the author
This is second book after the very successful book called the Psychology of money. Though not in series it’s a good idea to read that book first.
Or at least read that book summary first!
https://ramadocblog.wordpress.com/2022/03/27/the-psychology-of-money-by-morgan-housel/
Long post warning!
This is non fiction book on financial planning so the review is a summary for those who don’t want to read or listen to it and a preview for those who may read in the future.
There are some stories which are told in third narration and some points of inspiration.
One of the first stories is of Warren Buffet who was asked about the change and about things which are constant. He tells about how Snickers being the best chocolate for ages!
He then tells about Jeff Bezos who had realized that in spite of so many things which may or may not change, people will always prefer discount or low pricing and fast shipping! That will not change so he used to place his focus on these things!
The author then tells about his own story of his narrow escape by just a small decision of avoiding the ski and not getting trapped in the avalanche which kills his friends. A decision he made without any thought and only luck which saved him.
He tells objectively how risk is what you do not see! If you know something then that’s not risk! By definition risk is unexpected and unknown!
How economists can’t predict the stock collapse since it happens once in a while though over a period of time, every stock will collapse and will rise!
How over the billion of minutes of the life of humans you can have things happen once in a million! (A similar analogy was given by Carl Sagan!)
How Yuval is a famous author because he is a good story teller and not necessarily a good anthropology expert! So evey success is accepted if there is a good story.
How the famous I have a dream speech was an accident and not intended that way! Martin had another speech written and when flew, his assistant nudged him to tell about the I have a dream! And then of course as they say; rest is history!
How Dale Carnegie wrote his book! It was not a complicated thing but only a summary of routine things but with a story! People love stories!
He also tells about a person who survived because he had less hope and less optimism since then the failure is expected while those who had lot of hope had more failure!
How parking so many cars, a dent is actually highly probable! Most of us may escape a dent in the car but the author was offical Parker and with the huge volume involved, it was natural to have more incidents of dent! With such a huge number it’s just a law of averages!
How though many consider 1950s to be good or the best of times, it was in comparison actually a very bad time! High interest, low income, no house, no job but since the comparison was less it was great!
This whole section tells about comparison and how that’s the key to happiness or satisfaction many times!
So the essence here was comparison!
How Truman is counted as a great president now was actually thought to be a bad choice but the matter changed because of lowered expectations! Truman is actually now counted as one of the best presidents ever!
Sometimes some things which are not measurable are important! Human behaviour for one is a quantity which cannot be calculated with accuracy!
The one thing which they did not count on was the irrational behavior of Hitler! A logical deep thinking person would have surrendered long ago but this was desperate and irrational Hitler! Completely unpredictable! Just the fact that the war went on for so long shows the unpredictability of human behaviour!
He talks about the endless cycle of happiness and grief! How an economist Minsky talks about optimism leading to debt leading to recession leading to growth!
He also talks about unlimited growth also is bad! Case in point was Starbucks! Starbucks started opening branches like a rabbit multiplying! That led to drop in quality and service and finally they were forced to close many branches and lay off many people. Then they only do a controlled expansion now.
Complex to make simple to break! I loved this simple but profound take on complicated things which are so difficult to make but so easy to break!
Good things are things that did not happen while bad ones are those which did! Like you cannot quantify or grade a good thing like say a bomb which did not go off! Even some very complex things like a peace talk can break with a simple grudge! Peace is complex, while it’s simple to break into war!
Short cut does not pay; in this section the author talks about the fishes in warm water and cold. He tells about being patient, about having more pessimism which is actually good for the future!
Here he tells about the Donner party which took an unknown supposed short cut which actually turned out to be more long and tortuous. Time and supply was lost and they ended up in bad terrain at the peak of winter. Ending up in survival crisis and even cannibalism!
Enduring the pain when necessary rather than assuming there is a hack for everything is not right! Basically it means that there is no shortcut to success! In fact, success is supposed to be hard!
Free time is the best motivation was an important observation in the life of many successful people! In this context he tells about Warren Buffet and even Elon Musk who have used their free time to declutter their brain and come up with new ideas!
Of course he also mentions that one of the best ways to get a work done is to have incentives which is one of the biggest motivators! In fact he states that it is one of the most powerful force in the world!
In various chapters he also talks about expectations versus reality and how overnight tragedies if endured can lead to long term miracles!
For all the craze for a life hack! There actually isn’t any! Basically it means that you have to work and wait! There is no fast and constant success!
The best way to get what you want is to deserve what you want!
Scientific discussions are necessarily complex to make them sound intellectual while in fact most complex things can be broken up into simple understandable things! In fact the author tells that most of the financial literature essentially focusses on more saving, less spending and long term goal! Rest everything is just data!
He also talks about how wounds heal but scars remain in context of world war survivors and extrapolates it to the financial world in that people who have had big tragedy are normally reluctant to make risky decisions or take risk.
In the end the author asks some key questions which are like a revision of what you have leant and the message the author is trying to convey!
Starts with a discussion of Roosevelt with his wife just before the D Day. “To be nearly 60 and still rebel at uncertainty is ridiculous isn’t it was her reply!”
The author says how instead of worrying about future he started reading more about history!
The final chapter is a list of questions based on the book and is like a summary of what you can learn and teach yourself. The book may or may not help you in answering these questions but the questions are pertinent in finance and otherwise!
Who has the right answers but I ignore because they are not articulate?
Which of my current views I would disagree with if I was born in a different country or generation?
What do I desperately want to be true so much that I want it to be true when it is clearly not?
Problem which only applies to other country, industry, careers which will eventually hit me?
What do I think is true but is actually just good marketing?
What haven’t I experienced that leaves me naive about something?
What looks unsustainable but is actually a new trend which we have not accepted yet?
Who do I think is smart but is actually full of it?
Am I prepared to handle risk I cannot even envision?
Which of my current views would change if my incentives were different?
What are we ignoring today that will seem shockingly obvious in the future?
What events nearly happened that would have nearly changed the world I know if they had happened?
How much of things outside my control contribute to things I take credit for?
How do I know if I am being patient which is a skill or stubborn which is a flaw?
Who do I look up to that is secretly miserable?
What hassle I am trying to avoid which is actually the cost of success?
What crazy genius I aspire to emulate is just crazy?
What strong belief do I hold that is most likely to change?
What is always been true and What is SAME AS EVER!!?
All in all a good book to read after ‘psychology of money’; easy to listen and easy to comprehend! Somethings are just SAME AS EVER!
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